Critics Awards Cometh. Swan vs. Network?

Ballots were due today for the BFCA "Critics Choice Awards" so you can be sure I did my share of handwringing before I sent it in. My god, you think you know what you want to vote for and you stare at the ballot and it's just >gah< indecision! (It doesn't help that you can only vote for 3 items in each category, 5 for best picture). Those nominations will be announced on Monday.

Tomorrow we'll be hearing from the LAFCA (who will begin announcing at 12:30 PST) -- who have the Academy's ear by way of proximity and major representative outlets--  and the New York Film Critics Online (not to be confused with the the ancient NYFCC which votes on Monday) and then we're off. Neither the critics awards nor the top ten lists will let up thereafter for at least the next month. If you're curious about what I'm predicting you can check out Gold Derby's roundup of pundits here. Other than Best Picture (The Social Network -duh.), predicting critics awards can be a bit like throwing darts. We hope there are lots of fun surprises this year.

In the past decade critics prizes have become both more plentiful and repetitive, with one film always the obvious champ. Even in years where you'd think there'd be a battle royale (like 2007's No Country For Old Men vs. There Will Be Blood) it never really goes ten rounds before one film K.O.s the other. It's less about critical battles than it used to be and more about declaring your allegiance to the hivemind. Which, if you stop to think about it, is exactly what online movie culture is about, with off-consensus critics being (virtually) burned at the stake if they dare to dislike [insert popular movie here]. Which is all a long way of saying that you'll hear the title The Social Network over and over again this season. As often as you heard The Hurt Locker last year probably.

But both are great films so I don't mi---Oh no. I've been assimilated, too. Noooooooooooo

I'm guessing that if we see any challenge to Fincher's Networking this year it'll be Aronofsky & Team Swan (still all the rage at the specialty box office). But how much of a fight do those crazy ballerinas have in them?


Care to make any predictions?