Actress & Supporting Actress. So Many Oscar Questions

I've finished updating the acting charts. Just in time for Toronto so they might need fresh updates any second now as more reviews and hoopla hits.

I've opted to completely overhaul BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS which is a total cloudy mess. Beyond arguably Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom), Dale Dickey (Winter's Bone), Sissy Spacek (Get Low) and the Nowhere Boy women (Kristin Scott Thomas and Anne Marie Duff who have been kicking around festivals and international release for a year with this film), no one has yet proven their viability. It's all just assumptions about the films, their roles and the overall traction potential. Given that none of those women have yet laid claim to a super excited committed fanbase except Jacki Weaver, I've pushed her into predictions. In a wide open field this late in the game, a committed fanbase who have been beating your drum for seven months already will surely help. "Sweetie," I don't want to overstate the point and sound like I've built a "Jacki Weaver for the gold!" shrine in my living room, but it's the type of film-seizing performance that gets nominated -- period -- with a threat to win, if voters see the film. A mighty big "if" I'm fully aware.


Questions. I'd love to hear your answers

• Do you think The Kids Are All Right can hog 40% of the BEST ACTRESS category?
• Do you buy the category placements of Halle Steinfeld and Lesley Manville?
• Which of these performances are you most excited about sight unseen?
• Do you have any suspicions about who might actually win? (I don't!)
• Do you think they'll just give up on supporting actress and nominate this field based on the Best Picture candidates?
• Do you think the acting in Black Swan can win favor, even if they don't love the film?
• So many release dates are up in the air. Who won't we see until next fall/winter?